1. Australian unions said on Wednesday that Alcoa’s workers in Western Australia had begun an indefinite strike due to labor disputes. Alcoa currently has three alumina plants and two bauxite mines in the region, which Alcoa owns. 8.97 million tons of annual capacity of alumina. This will inevitably lead to a shortage of alumina, which has been tightly supplied, so that the high alumina prices will soar again and push up the cost of electrolytic aluminum. Domestic alumina prices will also rise. Before the strike is resolved, domestic and foreign aluminum prices will continue to rise. At present, the macro expectations of the current turmoil are still unclear. The foreign exchange market is undercurrent, and the policy is intertwined. The aluminum market, which is less affected by external shocks, is in the near-term bullish opportunity. The upper resistance is 14800-15000 RMB/ton.
2. If the United States continues to sanction Rusal or there will be a “catastrophic” shutdown. According to Reuters, Rusal is worried that if US sanctions are not lifted, some products of Rusal will be discontinued as early as September. There is a "disaster". According to the US April sanctions treaty, because Moscow is suspected of intervening in the 2016 US presidential election, US companies must abandon their business with RUSAL by October 23. A source close to RUSAL said that "if the sanctions are not lifted in the future, all products exported by the company will return to the warehouse again from October 1." The source also pointed out that "taking into account the implementation of sanctions, 80% of RUSAL's total production is exported, which is not only catastrophic for all RUSAL plants, but also catastrophic for the global aluminum market."