1. On August 27th, shipments of alumina shipments at two alumina plants in Alcoa and Worsley in western Australia have been delayed. Among them, the Alcoa factory and the union did not negotiate, this week the union voted to decide whether to end the strike next week. South W's Worsley alumina plant in Western Australia was affected by overhaul and production was affected by nearly 200,000 tons. The above situation continues to exacerbate the tight supply of alumina in foreign countries. Hydro Alunorte discontinued + Alcoa strike continued to ferment, overseas alumina production decreased year-on-year, and China was transformed from an alumina importer to an exporter. In addition, the heating season is approaching, the peak production is expected to become thicker, and the domestic market will shrink strongly. Alumina inventory is at a low level.
2. Under the influence of Russian sanctions, the “delivery season” for aluminum began earlier. In 2018, aluminum producers and buyers finalized US sales contracts much earlier than in previous years, largely due to the uncertainty of US sanctions against RUSAL. According to traders, producers and analysts, the so-called delivery season, which usually begins in the fall, begins as early as July this year. Although the US authorities may lift RUSAL sanctions, lifting the sanctions before the mid-term elections in November will bring political risks. Jorge Vazquez, managing director of Harbor Intelligence in Texas, said on the phone, "The market may have negotiated in advance in 2019, because they don't want to wait for the results of the Russian aluminum sanctions. Now the market is generally sanctions It was disapproved because it was cancelled. Because if the final sanctions are not cancelled, the wait will only lose more." Vazquez said that other reasons for suppliers to negotiate in advance include that if Europe and Canada are exempt from aluminum import tariffs or the US economy slows, aluminum prices may fall.