Aluminum Is The Most Valuable In Terms Of Cost Support

- Sep 11, 2018-

1. The export volume of unwrought aluminum and related aluminum products in China increased to 517,000 tons in August, close to 520,000 tons in July, which is also the highest level in more than three years. From June to August this year, China's aluminum exports exceeded 1.5 million tons, a record high for three consecutive months. At the same time, the export volume in the first eight months of this year has increased by 15% compared with the same period last year.

2. Goldman Sachs believes that aluminum is “most valuable” in base metals. Goldman Sachs said in a report received on Monday that trade tensions and concerns about emerging markets have exacerbated the “challenging environment” of base metals. The bank said: "We maintain a short-term neutral view that aluminum is the most valuable in terms of cost support." Although some economists believe that “the emerging market fundamentals in most countries are relatively healthy, the risks of financial spillovers and market downsizing are meaningful.” The devaluation of the RMB seems to hurt the base metal more than the damage to iron ore. Goldman Sachs Investment Bank research shows that copper prices rose by 10%, but China's imports fell by 5%, while iron ore prices rose by 10%, but only by 1%. Goldman Sachs also said that "basic and ferrous metal pairs may be used by investors to express the RMB view. The continued devaluation of the RMB will be a strong resistance for copper, but not for iron ore and steel." The reason for the difference in price between the two is that the supply-side reforms are caused by the supply-side reforms. Second, the non-ferrous and RMB exchange rates have higher historical price correlations, and the third is that the non-ferrous demand price elasticity is higher than black. The depreciation of the RMB may further constrain the price of non-ferrous metals.