Aluminum Price Analysis

- Oct 24, 2018-

1. According to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday, global primary aluminum production (including China) fell to 5.301 million tons in September, and was revised to 5.485 million tons in August. China's September production forecast fell to 3.01 million tons, compared with 3.12 million tons in August.

2. Analysis of aluminum price: The central bank's high-level release of liquidity and the attitude of the tax reduction plan stimulated the A-share market to a large extent, while improving the risk appetite of the commodity market. Shanghai Aluminum first suppressed and then rose. At the raw material end, due to the continued strong price of minerals and the fall in alumina prices, some alumina companies announced that they would overhaul or reduce production, and consolidate the support of alumina prices at the 3,000 yuan/ton mark. The main risk of the fall in aluminum prices has been lifted since a while ago. The suppression of consumption before the National Day was released after the holiday, which also helped the aluminum price to stick to the 14,000 yuan/ton mark in the short term. However, the sustainability of consumption is doubtful, and the rebound of Shanghai aluminum is limited.