Aluminum Price Analysis

- Dec 06, 2018-

G20 good news is still fermenting on the market's positive, aluminum prices remain volatile within the day. Although the current supply of aluminum ingots has been reduced due to production cuts, domestic aluminum ingots have remained de-stocked. According to the balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the destocking will be maintained until the end of December, but the consumption is expected to weaken in December, so the overall aluminum market is in supply and demand. Weak state. The cost is in a collapse trend (the anode price is further reduced by RMB 100/ton). Considering that a large amount of production capacity will be released in 18-19 years, it is expected that the domestic aluminum price will remain relatively weak in the first quarter of 2019. The risk point is that the loss factor may lead to an increase in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. The aluminum price may rebound in stages, but the rebound still needs to see whether there will be a large-scale production cut in the market. The short-term expectation of aluminum price is still the bottoming process.