Analysis Of Aluminum Prices On December 13, 2018

- Dec 13, 2018-

The US International Trade Commission has determined that US producers are harmed by China's imports of ordinary alloy aluminum sheet products, and the ruling will lock tariffs on these products, meaning that the US Department of Commerce has previously announced that the tariffs on these products will be imposed for 96.3% to 176.2% for five years. This ruling marginally bearish domestic aluminum plate exports, superimposed short-term aluminum inventory increased again, the overall outlook for short-term aluminum prices is difficult to say optimistic. At present, due to the reduction in production, the stage supply of aluminum ingots is reduced. According to the balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the destocking will be maintained until the end of December. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory is only within expectations, so the price boost is relatively limited. At the cost end, the cost center of gravity has moved down slightly. Therefore, considering that there is still a large amount of capacity to be invested in 18-19 years and the aluminum plant has strong risk tolerance, it is expected that the production capacity will continue to be released. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will be aluminum before the first quarter of 2019. The price performance is relatively weak. The risk point is that the loss factor may lead to a substantial increase in the production of electrolytic aluminum companies. The aluminum price may rebound, but the rebound will still need to see the scale of production reduction.