Although the price of aluminum fell back in 2018, it did not appear as the cliff-like decline in the second half of 2015, and even fell below 10,000 more than the 2008 financial crisis panic hit a low point. Last weekend's meeting announced that the annual production of 3 million tons of production was mostly replacement capacity, but the new capacity during the year was also about 2.5 million tons. The preliminary statistics of the actual total capacity decline is less than 500,000 tons, which is also verified by the relatively stable production data. And in the statement at the end of 2015, the part that was not put into production within one year was immediately torn after the aluminum price rebounded after a few months. Therefore, the futures disk, the market's strength and credibility response to this statement are quite cool. The aluminum price has temporarily stopped falling but the rebound is weak. The core factor is still the low price and the expectation of the production stoppage, but the downstream demand is still not optimistic about the weak supply and demand logic. In the domestic disk futures market, the trend of non-ferrous metals has been diverging.