Analysis Of The Current Situation Of Rusal

- Sep 12, 2018-

Bloomberg News, according to three people familiar with the matter, Russia is preparing to start production this month in response to US sanctions, LME night disk rallied, but the macro uncertainty caused the aluminum price to fall after the high. The sanctions against the Russian aluminum incident are two-sided. If the substantial reduction in production will result in an aluminum gap in the overseas market, if the sanctions are not cut, the Russian aluminum cargo may flow into the country and increase domestic supply pressure.


As the US sanctions against United Co Rusal disrupted the supply rhythm of the global aluminum market, buyers sought alternatives from other producers. In August, China's exports of aluminum products to the global market remained high. China is the world's largest aluminum producer, with more than 50% of its global aluminum products coming from China and Russia being second. Mo Yunjing, senior director of S&P Global Platinum Asia Metals Market, pointed out that from the supply side, Rusal is about 15%-16% of the global market share of the Chinese market. According to data released by China Customs on Saturday, the export volume of China's unwrought aluminum and its products reached 517,000 tons, close to the historical new high of 520,000 tons in July. From June to August this year, China's aluminum exports exceeded 1.5 million tons, a record high for three consecutive months. At the same time, the export volume in the first eight months of this year has increased by 15% compared with the same period last year. Affected by this, China continues to increase exports of alumina (aluminum raw materials), and shipments may continue to expand; from May to July this year, China's aluminum exports totaled more than 300,000 tons, compared with only about 11,000 tons in the same period last year. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said that if the United States continues to impose sanctions on RUSAL in October, aluminum prices will face a "end of the world" situation, when prices may exceed April aluminum prices, reaching 7 The high point of the year. Metal Mining Vice President Julian Keitel said in an interview that the market outside China has experienced a deficit. If Rusal can't supply metal, there will be a “mass shortage” in the market.

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