Analysis Of The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate

- Aug 15, 2018-

1. The further upward spiral of the US dollar opened, and the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate increased. The US dollar index broke through in the second half of the week and closed at 96.3. The reason is that the diplomatic relations between the United States and Turkey deteriorated. On Friday, Trump doubled the tariff on steel and aluminum imposed by Turkey, triggering a 16% drop in the Turkish lira, the biggest drop since the Turkish banking crisis in 2001. Under the drag of Turkey, the euro has weakened sharply and pushed the dollar index to rise sharply. In the short term, Turkey's external debt risk is likely to be further fermented, and the space for the US dollar index to rise will be further opened, which will put more pressure on the RMB exchange rate.


2. It has been reported that Vietnam has begun to restrict the import of waste. It is reported that Vietnam will stop issuing new waste import licenses and crack down on illegal transportation, because many paper, plastic and metal scraps have accumulated in the port of the country, triggering the government. Concerns about the environment. Earlier, the Indian government also worried that the scrap metal in the United States would be transferred to countries including India. Recently, India's largest aluminum producer, Hindalco, urged the Indian government to restrict imports of low-cost semi-finished products, wire rods, scrap steel, scrap aluminum and other scrap metal because the company is worried about the rising share of imported products in the Indian domestic market. . As trade wars continue to escalate, producers in China and the Middle East are likely to transfer excess metals to the Indian market. Therefore, the Indian government plans to determine how to limit aluminum imports based on the number of imports in the past three years. Aluminum producers in India are also working with the government to ensure the specific grade and quality of imported aluminum.