Domestic Aluminium Price Forecast

- Aug 14, 2018-

1. On August 8, the Alufer Guinea Air (BelAir) open pit bauxite was put into production on time and on schedule, and the first batch of high-grade bauxite was shipped to China. The mine has a stable production capacity of 5.5 million tons of bauxite per year. The domestic environmental protection of bauxite continued to tighten the supply. The production of alumina was limited, and the foreign price was higher than the domestic superimposed RMB. The export of alumina was good, and the supply and demand of domestic alumina was improved. The price stopped falling and the cost supported. Strong effect. In addition, the aluminum export situation is optimistic to drive domestic deconstruction, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still have room for growth.

2. Aluminium price forecast: In view of the current market's worries about the global macroeconomic downturn, the commodity market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. The domestic aluminum price performance is relatively resistant, partly due to the market's repair of the demand side short-term expectations in the second half of the year. Fundamentally, the Alcoa strike event has come to an end. In view of the favorable factors such as the depreciation of the RMB, it is expected that the export will continue to be better in the later period, which will further benefit the aluminum price. In terms of positions, the total domestic aluminum holdings have rebounded recently, and the funds are still facing the aluminum price. The technical level is that the aluminum price is in the short-term regional pressure of 14800-15000 RMB/Ton, and the lower support area is 14300-14500 RMB/Ton. The probability of a strong price shock is greater.