1. Analysis of aluminum price: On the domestic front, the increase in inventory reflects the weakening of seasonal demand. Although the spot of electrolytic aluminum slipped to below 13,400 yuan / ton, but because the price of alumina fell below 3,000 yuan / ton, the current total cost of smelting is still around 1,100 yuan / ton, we still think that 13,000 yuan / ton of electrolytic aluminum exists With sufficient safety margin, the weakness of the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum has not changed significantly. Consumption remained weak before and after the Spring Festival. After the New Year's Day, stocks accumulated significantly, and alumina prices were still in the downward trend. The cost was down, consumption was weak, and stocks accumulated multiple negatives. There is still room for downside in aluminum prices. In a short period of time, Shanghai Aluminum may pick up under the macro boost, but it will remain unchanged for a long time, and the operation of the single can continue to hold, maintaining the view below 13100.
2.In November, China's aluminum plate export volume was 242,300 tons, up 4.0% month-on-month, up 53.0% year-on-year, and import volume was 17,600 tons. Aluminum foil export volume was 114,200 tons in November, up 8.8% from the previous month, up 24.3% year-on-year, and import volume was 0.54 million. Ton. The increase in export volume was mainly due to the increase in the tax rebate rate in November, the lower year-on-year ratio of Shanghai and Shanghai, and trade frictions, which led companies to rush to export before they imposed tariffs.