JP Morgan's director Natasha Kaneva said at the LME Week meeting that “China's primary aluminum production is much lower than expected this year, not only is China's aluminum production growth slowing, but also in other parts of the world.” 1-8 The total output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 24.049 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. In 2017, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 36.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, a record high. JPMorgan Chase estimated in December 2017 that China's electrolytic aluminum production was 36 million tons in 2018, but has since lowered its estimate by about 2 million tons, while lowering its aluminum production forecast outside China. “The main reason is that the newly started or soon-to-be-launched projects are progressing very slowly, due to rising raw material costs after the soaring alumina prices this year,” Kaneva said. The high raw material costs also make the smelter's profit margins lower and lower. Kaneva said: "Since the peak in mid-April, the profit margin of Chinese smelters has dropped by nearly 60%, and has dropped by 35% since the end of July. We estimate that about 40% of global aluminum production capacity may be measured by current spot prices. There is a negative growth in cash flow.” In the trade war, given the huge gap between the US requirements and China’s acceptance, we believe that the possibility of a trade ceasefire between China and the United States is very low, but our analysis shows that current metal prices have already reflected global economic growth. The worst situation facing. From a fundamental perspective, JP Morgan Chase expects aluminum prices to be around $2,250 in the coming quarters. But in the second half of 2019, the situation will change.