Latest Aluminum Price Analysis

- Nov 15, 2018-

The United States has postponed the sanctions against RUSAL, and the bearish sentiment in the aluminum market is still spreading. The domestic disk price has now fallen below the key resistance level in the past year and continues to drop. Domestically, the current aluminum price is far lower than the industry average cost, and the cost is still moving up slightly. Therefore, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum production due to losses continues to increase. It is reported that Yongdeng Aluminum will reduce production of 100 electrolytic cells this week. At present, the newly added capacity of electrolytic aluminum is still more than the production capacity reduction, and the inventory is still 1.41 million tons. Therefore, even if the current destocking status is maintained, the current estimated supply gap is still insufficient to rapidly reduce the inventory of more than 1 million tons, and downstream. Gradually entering the seasonal off-season, aluminum prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. However, considering that the cost of low-cost regions such as Shandong has far exceeded the current price of aluminum, if the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreases sharply due to losses in the future, it is expected that aluminum prices will rebound and rebound. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be support at the bottom except for the heating season support. However, the effectiveness of support still depends on whether there will be a reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the market.