Recent Aluminum Price Analysis

- Nov 02, 2018-

Aluminium prices remained on the weak side. From a static point of view, more new production capacity is still more than capacity, and inventory is still more than 1.5 million tons, superimposed on the macro sentiment is weak, aluminum prices are expected to continue downward pressure. Considering that the cost in low-cost regions such as Shandong has already exceeded the current aluminium price, and if the output of electrolytic aluminium enterprises decreases and increases due to losses in the future, it is expected that the decline in aluminium price in the future will also be limited, so excluding the support of the heating season, it is expected that the bottom will still have support, so it is not recommended to overshoot. On the supply side, new aluminum production in the fourth quarter is more concentrated, aluminum price pressure, but if prices fall again, or affect the release of new capacity. The new production capacity of aluminum oxide is gradually released, and the price of aluminum oxide has fallen back to around 3,000. However, due to the support of its own costs, the drop in the price of aluminum oxide is limited, and the cost-end support of electrolytic aluminum still exists. As the price of aluminum has fallen, the price of aluminum and the cost of aluminum have increased in an inverse range It is still possible that the output of aluminum electrolysis will be reduced due to losses in the future. Gansu Zhongrui and several Henan Aluminum electrolysis enterprises will be forced to cut production as a result of losses. It is expected that the continued decline in prices in the later period will lead to more aluminum smelters being forced to cut production So the cost side of looking at aluminum is falling in space or limited.