1. Industry News: The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department has once again delayed the validity of certain general licenses of EN Group PLC, Russian Aluminum Corporation and the Gorky Group (GAZ) until January 7, 2019. At present, in the game of high-cost production capacity reduction and new capacity production, on the one hand, the domestic aluminum production cost is higher than the aluminum price for a long time, which will increase the willingness of aluminum enterprises to reduce production; on the other hand, the total aluminum production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. There will still be new capacity in the quarter, due to high costs or slower delivery.
2. It is expected that China and the United States will make concessions on the trade war in the next few months or worse - JPMorgan Chase. Reuters Hong Kong, November 13 - The world is waiting for the Chinese and US heads of state to meet during the G20 meeting at the end of this month, whether it can bring a turn for the Sino-US trade war, but the investment bank JPMorgan China's chief economics Zhu Haibin said on Tuesday that it is not clear that the two countries will make obvious concessions, and it is expected that the situation may be even worse in the next three to six months. The Sino-US trade war may bring more risks to the Chinese economy next year. In the case of rising external risks, China's domestic policies may be adjusted accordingly, such as fiscal policy, deleveraging, and the recent introduction of support policies for private enterprises. It is estimated that these adjustments will be even stronger next year. If there is no major adjustment in deleveraging, it is difficult to achieve an ideal rebound; but once the de-leverage is abandoned and the debt problem is further spread, China may follow the footsteps of the Japanese recession in the next five to ten years. He pointed out that China's 4 trillion yuan stimulus measures in 2008 will be effective in the short term. The contribution of the Chinese economy to the global economy has averaged about 30% per year in the past 10 years; but at the same time, China has made sacrifices in the past 10 years. This reflects the current rise in corporate debt problems, overcapacity, and reduced investment efficiency.