US New Declared Tariffs Will Continue To Affect China's Aluminum Exports

- Sep 20, 2018-

1. Harbor Intelligence said that the latest round of tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports will result in a 10% tax rate on aluminum wheels, affecting about 71% of US hub imports. An additional 10% import tariff on Chinese wheels may not be enough to prevent Chinese wheels from exporting to the United States. Tax increases may partially reduce the spread between Chinese and American wheel manufacturers. Certain standard wires and cables may also be affected by tariffs, but may be offset by China's plan to increase export tax rebates for these products.

2. Domestic fundamentals, although the supply side has successively launched new capacity such as Baiyan, Yun Aluminum and Hope Guyang, but some high-cost production capacity has been shut down. SMM data shows that electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased by 945,000 this year. In tons, the output of electrolytic aluminum in August was 3.113 million tons, and the operating capacity in early September was 37.36 million tons. From the demand side, the overall performance peak season in September was not strong, but some industries such as automotive aluminum, rail transit profiles, aluminum cables and other orders performed better, the overall consumption in East China has a rising trend, and the local spot market performance is firm. From the cost point of view, although the price of alumina is facing a correction in the expectation of Hydrogen's resumption of production and heating seasons, but the export pull, alumina itself has a gap between supply and demand, the price correction is expected to be limited, the mid-term callback After that, there is still room for growth. In summary, SMM believes that the short-term Shanghai aluminum main contract is 14400 yuan/ton. The support is strong. In the context of a slight improvement in the overall macro atmosphere, the short-term forecast of Shanghai aluminum main contract operation range is 14300~14700 yuan. /Ton.