1. The IMF estimates that the trade war will reduce global GDP by $430 billion. Estimates released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 18th show that the "trade war" provoked by the Trump administration in the United States will reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.5% in the worst case, equivalent to $430 billion. . Japan, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of exports to the US, will be greatly affected, and GDP is expected to decrease by 0.6%. The United States is estimated to reduce by 0.8%. The current global economic growth rate for both 2018 and 2019 is expected to be 3.9%, but it is likely to fall sharply. The IMF predicts that automobile import restrictions "have the biggest blow to Japan" on the grounds that cars account for 29% of Japan's exports to the United States. In addition, according to the IMF estimates, the GDP of Asian emerging market countries including China will decrease by 0.7%, Central and South America by 0.6%, and the Eurozone by 0.3%.
2. Japan’s exports to the United States in June fell for the first time in 17 months, dragged down by trade protectionist concerns. Reuters: Japan’s exports to the United States in June fell for the first time in 17 months, dragged down by concerns about US-based President Trump’s protectionist trade policy. Japan’s exports to the United States in June fell 0.9% from a year earlier, dragged down by exports of automotive and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Automotive and semiconductor manufacturing equipment are the two most important export products in Japan. Although the decline is not large, it may still cause concern among Japanese policy makers. They worry that Trump may put pressure on Japan to take practical measures to reduce Japan's trade surplus with the United States.